The TTK Prestige Q4 EBITDA margin graph does not show the full picture. The high margin years were Covid years with high demand, low supply, therefore higher margin. 2018-19 and 2019-20 margins hover around 13-15%. Not far from current 12%.
The OPM margin has been down to 9% in FY’06, 07. And oscillating in 10-15% range over the years. Maybe this is more about cyclical part of the business rather.
Point taken, though I feel only specific components of overall utensil market would show more clear signs of what I tried to write above, and that's why I tried to connect with a Pressure cooker player.
Could the record breaking housing sales in the last 3 years indicate the purchase of second homes or short term rental homes leading to a lack of fully loaded kitchens in these homes?
The scope of restaurant businesses and processed foods particularly meats in India looks promising only when coupled with a rise in cold storage infrastructure. I personally don’t think the kitchen will go out of fashion in India. There may be a rise in processed foods and an eating out culture in tier 1 cities that allow companies to reach 100+ crore valuations but that does truly capture the emotion of the kitchen in India? Do we have stats on the number of homes that can afford dishwashers, fully loaded ovens, chimneys, overhead cabinets and spice racks? The average Indian home may have an exhaust fan, a stove by a windowsill and an open pantry that doubles as a store room. A single stainless steel round spice dish sounds more Indian than a spice rack. I get the overall essence of this article but I don’t know if it truly reflects the situation in India.
Hi Jewel, thank you for the comment. The points you mentioned are all valid possibilities, though I don't have data around them currently. I really appreciate your thoughts about this topic.
> Back in 2008, only 37% of Indian households were nuclear, which has now risen to 50% in 2022, implying ~160 million households out of ~320 million households are now nuclear. Infact, as per Kantar’s Consumer Connections 2023 research, 3 out of 4 incremental households in India over the past 14 years are nuclear. Where our average family size used to be above 5 members as per 2001 Census, this has fallen to ~4.4 members in 2021.
Is there a by-state breakdown for this dataset? Is there a difference between traditional rice farming and wheat farming societies when it comes to household size (controlling for local incomes)?
Yes there is, Tamil Nadu has lowest family size of about 3.8 and UP has highest above 5 - I don't have the report link handy for this, but I remember reading this when writing the blog.
> The Worker Population Ratio (WPR) is the proportion of the working-age population (typically 15 years and older) that is employed. When this ratio rises, it usually means more people are working, which can have some interesting ripple effects on habits like cooking food at home. While ‘Male’ WPR has been at north of 70% and rising, what is interesting is ‘Female’ WPR has been sharply rising and almost doubled in the last 7 years as shown in the chart.
Why does indian media keep talking about India's low female labour force participation rate? Is this just one those things that when the experts brought the problem to public attention it was right around the time the problem was getting solved on its own?
The TTK Prestige Q4 EBITDA margin graph does not show the full picture. The high margin years were Covid years with high demand, low supply, therefore higher margin. 2018-19 and 2019-20 margins hover around 13-15%. Not far from current 12%.
You may confirm if the data is reliable for same on screener, I see that operating margins in between 12% to 14% from FY16 to FY20, which today stands at 9% and falling. (https://www.screener.in/company/TTKPRESTIG/consolidated/#profit-loss)
The OPM margin has been down to 9% in FY’06, 07. And oscillating in 10-15% range over the years. Maybe this is more about cyclical part of the business rather.
Just an observation. But nice blog!
I also feel using this graph and data skews our analysis. A graph of Cooking utensils market size over the decades would make most sense.
Point taken, though I feel only specific components of overall utensil market would show more clear signs of what I tried to write above, and that's why I tried to connect with a Pressure cooker player.
Its very difficult to get the right data for such analysis. Great article though.
One more data point you can add which might me more accurate is Rise in consumption of vegetable oil - an oil which is never used in homes.
Overall nice blog
Could the record breaking housing sales in the last 3 years indicate the purchase of second homes or short term rental homes leading to a lack of fully loaded kitchens in these homes?
The scope of restaurant businesses and processed foods particularly meats in India looks promising only when coupled with a rise in cold storage infrastructure. I personally don’t think the kitchen will go out of fashion in India. There may be a rise in processed foods and an eating out culture in tier 1 cities that allow companies to reach 100+ crore valuations but that does truly capture the emotion of the kitchen in India? Do we have stats on the number of homes that can afford dishwashers, fully loaded ovens, chimneys, overhead cabinets and spice racks? The average Indian home may have an exhaust fan, a stove by a windowsill and an open pantry that doubles as a store room. A single stainless steel round spice dish sounds more Indian than a spice rack. I get the overall essence of this article but I don’t know if it truly reflects the situation in India.
Hi Jewel, thank you for the comment. The points you mentioned are all valid possibilities, though I don't have data around them currently. I really appreciate your thoughts about this topic.
> Back in 2008, only 37% of Indian households were nuclear, which has now risen to 50% in 2022, implying ~160 million households out of ~320 million households are now nuclear. Infact, as per Kantar’s Consumer Connections 2023 research, 3 out of 4 incremental households in India over the past 14 years are nuclear. Where our average family size used to be above 5 members as per 2001 Census, this has fallen to ~4.4 members in 2021.
Is there a by-state breakdown for this dataset? Is there a difference between traditional rice farming and wheat farming societies when it comes to household size (controlling for local incomes)?
Yes there is, Tamil Nadu has lowest family size of about 3.8 and UP has highest above 5 - I don't have the report link handy for this, but I remember reading this when writing the blog.
> The Worker Population Ratio (WPR) is the proportion of the working-age population (typically 15 years and older) that is employed. When this ratio rises, it usually means more people are working, which can have some interesting ripple effects on habits like cooking food at home. While ‘Male’ WPR has been at north of 70% and rising, what is interesting is ‘Female’ WPR has been sharply rising and almost doubled in the last 7 years as shown in the chart.
Why does indian media keep talking about India's low female labour force participation rate? Is this just one those things that when the experts brought the problem to public attention it was right around the time the problem was getting solved on its own?